Anyone want to bet/predict how this ends?
Remember when you used to have to find someone to take your sports bets? It was usually a bit of a seedy proposition involving phone calls and someone you really hoped you never had to meet in person. My only foray into running a gambling ring was the college basketball pool I used to type out and print each year back in the 1990’s. I would watch the selection show as it aired, write down the teams, and then I draw out my own brackets to print and distribute to my friends. Kids these days will never know this level of struggle and commitment. I laugh when I think back at all the steps involved for me to just make a few bucks and have some fun with friends.
Speaking of my younger years, I am very glad that I did not have access to the gambling apps on my phone like people do today. I always enjoyed watching sports, and I also enjoyed a small wager on things, so I can easily envision a scenario where these betting apps could have sent me down a much worse path in life. Seriously though, make sure to talk to your kids about this kind of stuff.
When it comes to my career in casinos, I think the single best thing that ever happened to me is when I lost $100 in a slot machine in about five minutes. I sat there staring at the machine, thinking about how dumb that was. One bad night made me not ever want to go back into a casino again.
If the thrill of betting on sports wasn’t enough to generate a high for people, now we have the prediction markets. Now you can bet, I mean buy an event contract on predictions for just about anything. The topics are limitless and the age restriction for prediction markets is lower (18 years old) than the gambling apps. And oh yeah, the regulations are a bit laxer as well. To me, it’s a just another form of transferring money from those who have some sort of edge, to those who don’t. Remember, prediction markets are not regulated like gambling apps. Nobody is going to jail for having insider information and cashing in on an event contract.
The more I am around money, the more I become convinced that is not always about making the absolute best decision when facing difficult choices, but it is definitely about avoiding the very bad ones. Let’s be clear about this; these types of things can be fun if treated as a hobby, they can be utterly life destroying once they become an addiction. It is not lost on me that the stock market can have some gambling type of appeal, especially if you are day trading. That’s why I am a big fan of setting up a plan, letting it run, and make some adjustments as we go. Check your accounts quarterly, update your plans annually, and move along.
Prediction markets are having their moment. The lack of regulation right now, combined with the fact that our government seems to be open to “working with” companies who are willing to work with them are helping to fuel this boom. My prediction for the prediction markets is this. They will do well for now, but the regulations will change eventually. Once enough people start to feel burned by bad bets, something else will come in to replace them. Like any form of gambling, for those who start to use them regularly you might do well or get lucky for a while, but just remember, the house always wins.
